Tencent Nintendo Switch Launched
Est. 50K sell-through in launch day with wide range of guesstimate in longer term #GPS3
| James Yeh | Dec 14, 2019 |
Greetings from James.
This week has been quite entertaining. We had Tencent Nintendo Switch (TXNS) launched, PlayStation State of Play, Nintendo Switch Indie World Showcase, NPD Nov. sales information released, and The Game Awards with Xbox X Series announced.
Some thoughts below.
TXNS launched
Before the launch, the combination of reservation and pre-order that could be observed (JD.com, Tmall, and Suning) was more than 200,000 units. Eventually, Niko Partners estimated TXNS sell-through was more than 50,000 units on launch day based information from online retailers and the market research firm’s “market model.”
As expected, the estimation range for the TXNS is quite wide. From a flop scenario to a social phenomenon scenario, we have
50K units in this fiscal year ending March 2020 (Heard through. The analyst probably has already updated her/his forecast based on new information.)
2M-4M units in this fiscal year ending March 2020
Probably data points / opinions that are news worthy get the most distribution so forecasts in news outlets at this stage are more likely be those draw boundary.
Nintendo gained ~2.6% this week after market digested forecasts and initial results. While the development in China seems positive, participants will still be conservative and focus on short term catalyst like the magnitude of upward revision(excluding China) before the briefing.
Upcoming noticeable events:
Mario Kart Tour multiplayer beta (how many downloads are still active?)
Brain training release (maybe move some systems in Japan)
“Wished” Nintendo Direct in January (guess)
Nintendo FY3Q20 earnings release and briefing in the end of January (what are they going to present after China launch and before competing next generation consoles launch?)
Nintendo Switch Indie Showcase
Just gut feeling: it seems more games join as timed exclusive in this showcase. Is there anything changed in Nintendo’s Indie or third party strategy?
The Game Awards
Nintendo
Nintendo won some awards and hopefully that will boost the sales.
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - Strategy Game / Player’s Voice
Luigi’s Mansion 3 - Family Game
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - Fighting Game
Bravely Default II, a Nintendo Switch Exclusive, was finally announced. The sequel was probably teased in 1 million (shipment + download) celebration artwork of Octopath Traveler last year. Nintendo Switch is becoming a must-have platform for JRPG fans.
Xbox Series X
In this post, Phil Spencer discussed Xbox’s console strategy.
Xbox Series X will be our fastest, most powerful console ever and set a new bar for performance, speed and compatibility, allowing you to bring your gaming legacy, thousands of games from three generations and more forward with you.
With Xbox Series X, we will elevate the way games look, play and feel.
Xbox Series X is also designed for a future in the cloud, with unique capabilities built into the hardware and software to make it as easy as possible to bring great games to both console and elsewhere.
There’s nothing new in the post regarding how the console strategy fits into the larger Xbox gaming platform strategy (from previous interviews he gave). That said, I am still inspired by a sentence and rewrite it to describe hardware trajectory difference between Xbox console and Nintendo console.
Xbox and PlayStation consoles try to elevate the way games look, play and feel while Nintendo’s consoles try to innovate the way games play and feel.
What’s the risk and reward for being innovative as a platform holder? Will Nintendo discuss their platform strategy in the foreseeable future? Probably not.
Cheers,
James